With the changing times and the
transformation of China's economic structure, unfolding the third Fortune
reshuffle is inevitable. In accordance with current trends, shuffle is a
continued process of wealth, so how do you avoid being washed or become a winner
in the shuffle is outstanding issues that are before us.
Bole equity investment team in the era
after long-term study found that, since China's reform and opening up, has
endured two Fortune shuffle, is undergoing a third round of reshuffling of
wealth:
Timid is bold of the shuffle for the first
time, so how big is China's first batch of rich is not knowledge, but bold. In
the process, with the currency and inflation after reform and opening up to,
and accumulation of wage who suddenly feel the relative devaluation of wealth
harder and harder. This is Fortune rise along the coast in Southeast, Central
and Western regions, in particular cause of the sharp decline in wealth in the
Northeast.
Second big shuffle is a knowledge and
insight for those who lack knowledge and insights of those who shuffle, the
shuffling took place 15 years ago, is expressed in a large number of excellent
private-owned enterprise's rise, such as Huawei, Tencent, TCL, and those
so-called "profiteering" decline.
Currently ongoing third Fortune shuffle is
a new way of thinking to an older way of thinking of shuffling, in the past
three years and the next 10 years will be repeated piece of drama.
Why the past 3 years and the next 10 years,
will put the third Fortune shuffle? Why 30 years one of the largest reshuffling
of wealth?
This is why these rich make money from the
past 30 years, Foundation exists to make money now? If you no longer exist, the
shuffling of wealth is a very easy to understand events.
Form and content of the third Fortune
shuffle is what?
1, and real estate investment wealth became
the third winner of the reshuffle, and become the next 10 years only to fight
inflation and devaluation of investment tools
Last year, time Bole equity investment
teams in China first proposed "no equity rich" and "the next 8
years, China's greatest investment opportunity in equity" point of view,
and people.
Capital markets staged dream of wealth, new
wealth myth has nothing to do with bear market, is proving the correctness of
this conclusion.
Real estate prices go beyond the salary
rise is a typical reshuffling of wealth, and no new wealth is being created, as
well as the lateral flow of funds. In this mode transfers of wealth, large
cities and some second-tier cities and House residents should automatically
become beneficiaries of the wealth transfer, residents in the other parts of
the country and are unaware of the wealth shrink. Regions, the gap is widening
between urban and rural areas, and the growth of small and medium cities in the
Midwest engine fire, few urban prosperity and cover most of the city's
depression.
Real estate investing to wealth became the
third winner of the reshuffle, there are several key reasons:
First asset shortage still exists in China,
release of large amounts of currency (China's GDP is far less than the United
States, but the monetary issue than the United States), and did not place.
Public venture, equity investment, not many people are familiar with and areas
of expertise.
Second house prices as the world's first is
an inevitable trend. China's housing prices have risen dramatically, however,
due to China's large population, 10 years or so and have the potential to
become the world's largest national GDP, meanwhile, also is the largest country
in the world wealth. Chinese like big cities, like education, medical city, in
this case, there will be too much money chasing the first-tier cities as well
as some second-tier cities. Price increases inevitable. Once China's GDP as the
world's first, coupled with China's large population, it will have a huge
"siphon effect" of neighboring countries and regions will continue to
edge. Does not rule out another 20 years, Japan may become the edge.
Reproduction Tang dynasty, house prices first, it is entirely possible.
However, we must remain sober-minded is,
three or four-wire net outflow of cities, especially in the cities, housing
prices are relatively low, but there is a huge bubble, because the bubble
itself is relative to demand and purchasing power.
2, wealth in the hands-on and disappearing
leverage
Horses of our time equity investment group
found that last year's stock market crash, many high net worth individual
investors of all failed mainly due to the hands-on and leverage over the past
30 years successful experience in industrial investment and real-estate
investment, many wealth owners thinks he can do everything, baodatianxia.
Reflect on events of the last two years:
bankruptcy of usury and the crash occurred, led to millions of households a
night back to liberation.
The main reason:
Hands-on: does not need much of a
professional in real estate foreign investment, mainly due to the real estate
over the past 10 years, average home prices are up more than 10 times, and up
not down, just like the stock market for 10 years. Retail investors will become
God. But the stock market appears to be simple, complex, professional players
may not make money, not to mention business people.
Leverage: a unilateral in a rising market,
is the use of leverage, however, China's stock market and gambling is no
different, using leverage, equal to gambling. Never seen borrows money from
gamblers to gamble, and, using leverage, even betting on 100 times, as long as
there is a failure, can result in wasted, one-night return to liberation. Why
can't stocks using leverage, and real estate investments can do it? Real estate
using leverage, even if prices fall, and do not require additional collateral,
but stock markets fell once, is a certain need for increased security.
3, still stuck in the past success, but did
not see coming. Outstanding: many companies on the blind project, only knows
how, getting into funding difficulties.
Blind directly involved in new activities:
typical case was Hunan, Hubei.
Blind expansion of production capacity,
capacity on the die engages in Shanxi Xinhai, LDK, Suntech, is a typical case.
Blind only knows how, on project: Sichuan
Changhong's successor, Zhao Yong, Chairman of the plasma project.
Eager to earn quick money into
loan-sharking or real estate: today a large number of three or four tiers of
small real estate business with funding dilemma, loan sharking burst in
Zhejiang Wenzhou and other areas.
4, difficult to adapt to the Internet the
coming civilization, civilization and space age, still in the thinking of
traditional industry, dreams of the traditional industry to continue recovery
With mobile Internet at its core, human
access to space civilization. Intelligent, non-scene, no contacts, no paper,
this is a typical sign of Internet space and civilization, and these iconic
products corresponding to the sign industry is an alternative to traditional
industries, and formed a lethal strike:
Off-site sales will gradually beyond the
sale, the Alibaba group, represented by the off-site sale will completely
defeat the General merchandise supermarkets. Original business type will change
radically. Alibaba, a company, annual transaction value of more than 1 trillion
yuan, is the sum of top department stores supermarkets.
The micro and micro-blogging services
represented by the new media, gradually replace newspapers, magazines,
television broadcasts, mainstream channels of information dissemination.
To smart phones as a representative of a
new generation of intelligent consumption, paperless age and off-site, space
civilizations prepare solid material Foundation.
Virtual spending gradually exceeding the
physical consumption, spirit consumption beyond material consumption,
represented by Tencent, era of virtual consumer, means that humans not only
consume food and beverages, housing and clothes, more spiritual level of
virtual consumer.
3D printing changing the manufacturing
State. Printing machines out of spare parts, food, clothing, and it will be the
biggest revolution in manufacturing.
To electric vehicles and shale gas as a
representative of new energy technologies to be influencing and changing core
of human energy patterns. This event makes coal and other conventional energy
decline is inevitable.
5, the third shuffle of wealth trends and
winners
Big reshuffle one of the trends and
directions of wealth: knowledge and entrepreneurship becoming mainstream way of
wealth creation
According to the wealth of Nations and all
the classic economic theory, wealth generation from the labor and resources.
Wealth structure and population structure of corresponding angles, more
developed economies in the world, only Hong Kong and mainland China basically
has nothing to do with the degree. This situation has nothing to do with
education is almost impossible. When the era of easy money in the past, China
will go back to the real era of relying on technological progress and integrity
to earn money.
Reshuffling of wealth trends and directions
II: simple "money begets money" era will be gone, the era of low
interest rates for a long time will destroy those high interest costs
Simple of "money health money" of
times past: past 10 years China created wealth of mainstream way not relies on
honest labor, and not relies on wisdom and hard business, but relies on assets
of bubble, relies on money health money, this bubble throughout whole social:
bulk mineral bubble, and collection products bubble, and luxury bubble and so
on, many people almost a night rich: 2015, society of wealth level almost is
2000 of 40 times times, but, actual GDP just growth has 300% just, Severity of
the bubble can be imagined.
Asset reshuffling of the trends and
directions of three: labor-intensive and manufacturing are replaced by brand
owners and owners of core technology
Fundamental change in China's comparative
advantage, low labour costs rising, but high labor costs are still relatively
cheap, in this case, labour-intensive industries have gradually eliminated or
transferred, and to brand + technology owners, so they will be the big
reshuffle winner of wealth. Typical cases is Huawei.
Asset reshuffling of the trends and
directions of four: better to be the head, a lion will be end
Under the principle of winner, the
industry's often left no more than 5. This means that China will have thousands
of enterprises or to close down or acquired.
Chinese people like to be your own boss,
did not measure their ability and level, resources, over the past 30 years the
brutal stages, Robin Hood era, this is possible today, can become the winners
will be those with entrepreneurial spirit and quality of the staff.
Today in Europe, Japan and the United
States have been heard from in 10 years business surges. It does not need so
many bosses.
Public entrepreneurship, and innovation,
the ultimate outcome must be "on the rotting bones."
Thinking over the past 30 years a key
condition for the success of the rich and (why are they rich), which is a
prerequisite to understand today the third Fortune cards
Bole equity team of the times study found
that over the past 30 years the rich become rich, in fact, is highly correlated
with the environment at that time, is a typical "hero". Must now be
analyzed, these environmental factors continue to exist, if not, whether wealth
must shuffle.
1, 30 years of reform and opening up has
created a very successful investment is conducive to China's rich to the
external environment, and everywhere is filled with opportunities to create
wealth
Global bonus: making reform and opening up
China's integration into the global, with the integration of the global
economy, especially labour, technical and financial integration, making China
the largest beneficiaries;
Elements of bonus: 30 years of reform and
opening up, including factors such as labour, land and capital, growing spring
breeze blowing from the southeast coast to the Mainland, formed transferred.
Dividends system: the system is a bridge
and link between the contact elements, is key to substantially enhance the
efficiency of elements. 30 anniversary, is the process of releasing system of
bonuses.
Consumer upgrade bonuses: consumption
upgrade and export growth three times a group of wealthy people.
30 years of reform and opening up, China's
economy has experienced an overall growth, all walks of life from the ruins
into a comprehensive prosperous, with three consumption upgrading and export
growth.
The first consumer upgrades: 80 from
hundred-Millennium-level, replacing the watch for color TV sets, refrigerators,
washing machines, sewing machines and bicycles, clothing, food, shelter.
Second consumer upgrades: 90, thousand-million-level,
for computers and mobile phones into the millions, achievements of Bill Gates
and Microsoft, Lenovo and founder.
Third-grade of consumption: 2000 years
later, move from the million level of hundreds of thousands of Yuan, even
million level, as represented by the cars, real estate, into ordinary, the
achievements of the large real estate owner and mine owner.
2, 30 years, mainstream investors on the
lack of government regulation and the rule is intrinsic to the success of the
basis and conditions
Low access to policy information and
advantages: only the southeast coast and in big cities.
Cheap labor: low wages, low benefits and
high strength.
Low cost of land.
Low cost of environmental damage.
Technology and low costs of imitation and
plagiarism.
Low and uncontrolled access to State
resources.
Rising asset prices.
Imperfection of the legal system and
policies, monitoring is not in place.
Why is China after 30 years, there will be
shuffling of wealth-the changing context and background, the same knowledge
structure and cognitive level of inevitable led to Fortune cards
Era Bole equity and concludes the following
reasons:
1, world time, changes have taken place,
but more people in his mark, impossible thoughts and thinking has not changed,
even the danger has appeared not to know.
This is particularly reflected in a number
of successful people in more than 50 years of success, they still stick to the
successful experience of the original, the status quo is still not willing to
acknowledge the reality of coming.
Horses of our time in the equity of the
project company did find that they are hard to change. Facing a global
environment, 10 years if enterprises do not, there must be a fatal problem, and
this is the crux of the problem is corporate leader's conservative and rigid.
2, 80% above does not have the existing
wealth mastery and ability to control this wealth: knowledge structure, the
level of recognition, vision, moral qualities, there is a huge limitation.
We need to see is that now have made the
wealth of people, does not mean that its competence and integrity than others.
A lot of people's knowledge and ability,
vision and not with the increase of wealth and growth.
3, 30 accumulated problems, could not pay
people: Chinese financial-asset bubbles; comprehensive real estate bubble in
China; China's heavy chemical industry.
Era Bole equity investment team believes
that more than 30 years of reform and opening up, eventually there will be an
opportunity to pay, even though we think that property prices in China will
become the world's first, but does not mean that there are no huge declines in
the price of, even after a significant decline in Hong Kong property prices
after several, have increased substantially.
We have accumulated such a huge financial
assets devaluation pressure is tremendous. If China's favorable balance of
trade has made, then combined with the Renminbi the next water slows down,
devaluation pressures will ease, otherwise, the devaluation of the renminbi is
only going to get a lot of pressure.
Excessive heavy industrialization in China,
the output of major industrial products, almost all of the world's first. Next,
capacity will be an ongoing and lengthy process. In the process, is also a
process of constant reshuffling of wealth.
4, changing environments and backgrounds,
unchangeable knowledge and cognitive level reshuffling will inevitably lead to
wealth.
Following the emergence of marked the dawn
of third money shuffle:
Completed China's heavy chemical industry:
iron and steel, cement and electrolytic aluminum production more than 70% of
the world, makes the space industry almost ceased to exist.
After becoming the world's first export,
general difficulties in 2012 annual import and export volume estimated growth
rate does not exceed 7%.
Shortage area, marked the end of the bonus
stages of China's population, rely on existing child policies, demographic
dividend will be at least 15 years to be felt.
Three consumer upgrade eventually led to
serious asset bubble and the serious deterioration of the environment in China,
China has become one of the world's most inhospitable countries.
In this case, once the conditions for the
survival of the rich and the basis for fundamental change, asset reshuffle is
inevitable:
No deposit information advantages, the
country has basically formed the reform and opening up.
Labor costs continue to rise, leading to
labor will become more and more difficult in the future, general manufacturing
and low value-added labour-intensive enterprises to big area of bankruptcy.
Rising raw materials prices will be a
persistent rise era, the vast majority of prices of raw materials will be
stagnant for a long time.
The rise of the Central and Western regions
and Viet Nam and Cambodia to open, the formation of new competitors: cheaper
labor and land costs.
Improvement of the legal system, and
increasingly expensive.
There may be a wider range of RMB
devaluation: the ratio of financial assets can be found in long-term
devaluation is a big trend.
Lack of proper investment channels, while
the original business is largely up to the development of space. Bank deposits,
by 7% per cent a year, stocks fell every day.
Victims have emerged, martyrs ' blood is
expected to be in vain. Wenzhou, Ordos to the bursting of the housing bubble,
could well be overshadowed by the recent one or two lines of China real estate
madness.
Jiang Guo Yun: in China the third Fortune
big reshuffle winner
With the changing times and the
transformation of China's economic structure, unfolding the third Fortune
reshuffle is inevitable. In accordance with current trends, shuffle is a
continued process of wealth, so how do you avoid being washed or become a
winner in the shuffle is outstanding issues that are before us. After much
research and demonstration, Bole equity team of the times believes that equity
net flows into real estate investment in the future of the city and 10 years to
value and investment against inflation, stick to business, embrace mergers, are
important mainstream choice.
One
Bole team thrashed the times concluded
that, for purposes of investment, urban real estate investment equity net
inflows and the past 3 years and the next 10 years the most effective methods
of wealth, including relatively low risk of equity investment, real estate
investment has stage experience some bubbles. Select equity, choice urban real
estate investment net inflows, should be capable of being third in the
shuffling of wealth in a position of comparative advantage, have a great chance
to become the winner.
1, the review of the past 10 years
investment history and looking into the future, only the equity investments are
most likely to fight inflation and a positive return on investment, but also to
invest in most of the time, the reasons are as follows:
Changes in economic development over the
past 10 years, and Bole of the times team found that only equity return on
investment is steadily rising, falling or in other industries, or industries
may face disappear. And we see the following facts:
Falling yields on bank financial products:
about 10% years from down under 4%;
Yields in the bond market decline: apart from
the fair last year, bond yields and yields on other bonds of the year overall
was downward trend;
General industrial investment income also
fell: there is no doubt that General uncertainty surrounding the investment is
the largest in the past few years, especially the traditional industry and
energy-intensive heavy industry;
Real estate yields are declining: in the
past 10 years, while real estate is one of the best performing industry, but
for the last three years, rose has evolved into a handful of cities increases,
real estate investment regional risks have appeared, three years ago, real
estate and even in a period of serious difficulties.
In contrast, equity market, based on yields
from two aspects: one is listing probability and to market, is listed after the
rate of return.
Listing probability greater listing period
is shortened. The China Securities Regulatory Commission is essentially a lower
listing threshold, has been asking for three consecutive years in the past, and
there are no profit declines over the past 10 years the probability of
reporting enterprises through the issuance of audit is 78%, now pay more
attention to compliance and disclosure, reporting through the past 3 years the
probability of issuing up to 88%, up full 10%.
From the market, IPO listing easier, from
the third to the IPO is only 1.5 years.
Judging from the listed yields, market
yields also rose steadily, now China's stock markets, only the shares yield
whether it is bull market or bear market, are very high! Recent trends in a
year or more.
In addition, judging from the equity
investment environment and space, also in a very good state of development:
After 5 years of interpretation has
developed excellent PE institutions, specialized more and more. Only after a
shuffle, and they knew that those institutions are credible and what strength
is very strong.
China's IPO is a huge space: the United
States has nearly all listed companies, China currently has more than 3,000
enterprises, considering that 10 years later, China's GDP reached or exceed
United States, 10,000 Chinese listed companies completely normal. In other
words, the next 10 years, China had 7,000 companies listed, this is what a
great cake.
China's significant improvement in the
environment and promotion of equity exits: exit new three Board listing,
mergers and acquisitions, IPO and many other exit option for equity investment
the exit environment provides far better than in the past.
2, the net inflow of cities real estate is
the second choice, is also a good way to invest, with the equity investment
difference is, there is a high risk of real estate, tier and second-tier
cities, after all, the short term prices have been large.
Why net population inflow of cities is also
a good way to invest in real estate?
First, Chinese investment in real estate of
helpless choice
China has a shortage of assets, declining
yields on financial products, release of large amounts of currency (China's GDP
is far less than the United States, but the monetary issue than the United States),
and did not place. Public venture, equity investment, not many people are
familiar with and areas of expertise.
Second, investing in real estate is a
Chinese investment habits
Chinese farming civilization, with a fixed
place is a habit, even those who have emigrated to overseas countries of choice
for Chinese and overseas Chinese will continue to purchase a home as an
investment.
Third, Chinese people tend to flock to big
cities, a severe a herd mentality.
Chinese like big cities, like education,
medical city, in this case, there will be too much money chasing the first-tier
cities as well as some second-tier cities. Rising home prices in these cities
is inevitable.
IV, housing prices in China as the world's
first is an inevitable trend.
China's housing prices have risen
dramatically, however, due to China's large population, 10 years or so and have
the potential to become the world's largest national GDP, meanwhile, also is
the largest country in the world wealth.
Once China's GDP as the world's first,
coupled with China's large population, it will have a huge "siphon
effect" of neighboring countries and regions will continue to edge. Does
not rule out another 20 years, Japan may become the edge. Reproduction Tang
dynasty, house prices first, it is entirely possible.
3, the essence of equity investments with
an equity investment, but due to too many factors influencing the winning stock
investments, especially the factor is human nature, hard for the average person
to overcome, so equity investment in equities does not belong to this article
is about.
Bole equity investment team of the times
believes that winning stock investments must meet the following three
conditions:
(1) beyond normal asymmetric information:
information because everyone knows there is not much reference value of
investments;
(2) with anti-psychological qualities of
human nature, if it is animal of reflective thinking and psychology, best not
to invest, investment is the key psychological quality control over their
emotions and make a rational judgment;
(3) have enough patience and waiting: for
equity financing, you need enough patience and confidence of investors.
Since the common it's hard to have more
than three conditions, and buy stocks lost money is a normal thing. So much in
a variable, under the conditions of uncertainty is so great to buy stock in a
way that wealth is being washed away. Even is professional players, we also can
strictly argument, its returns must greatly below equity investment, according
to value investment of theory, engaged in of are is investment, in equal level
and equal conditions Xia, a can not need overcome too more of humanity, and
another must overcome humanity to constantly for judge, humanity hard overcome,
more once judge, more once errors of probability, so, stock investment must bad
Yu equity investment. A little mathematical knowledge people should understand
this.
Two
If we want to avoid shuffling of wealth,
should have a kind of way of thinking? We clearly good equity investments and
real estate wealth is the value after the main way, for the wealth of the whole
global concept, there must be a correct way of thinking.
Bole team thought of the times, only to
establish the correct way of thinking and methods it is possible to completely
avoid third money shuffle. Was thinking, after all, decided to act.
1, let go of the past have had experience
in a whole new perspective to meet the investment.
Are difficult to change, especially those
who completed in the wealth accumulation. Maintain the previous experience
often become shackles or grow.
The rise of the new economy, especially the
coming of the Internet age, has completely changed the original production and
way of life.
2, the industry must comply with the
direction of national economic restructuring, otherwise, often becomes the
object of persecution, victim of the times
We select and direction must be consistent
with the direction of national economic restructuring. State strategic
industries are the focus of development in the next 10 years. New consumer
business and health for national development and lasting power.
3, there is no appropriate team cannot
easily intervene in unfamiliar industries with special people to do
professional things is the key to investment success in transition
People is a decisive factor. Unlike past
simple processing and manufacturing industries, and industries are now is a
combination of money, capital and knowledge capital. Even investment banking,
was also very professional. In that case, rushed into an unfamiliar industry,
the risk of failure is great.
Professional people to do professional
things, in other words, don't do it without professional, otherwise can only
bear the agony of defeat.
Three
We want to win the third asset shuffle,
also need to stand on high ground, knowing some basic methods in order to make
the right choice. Era Bole equity investment team believes that third money
shuffle is definitely an intense process, of usury and the 2015 2014 stock crash
was just a rehearsal for the tragedy, more durable and more terrible chronic
shuffle yet, so we need to stand on a vantage point to understand the third
Fortune cards, to guard against being shuffled.
1, focus on their future business, do your
best and most advantageous work
Only those in the blue ocean market and
prosperous industry, focusing on its main, deep penetration to do business, to
lasting success and wealth to become the third largest winner in the shuffle.
In fact, a blue ocean market, in fact, no urgency to diversify economies in
transition, and instead concentrate on core business development prospects.
Japan and Germany has the largest number of hundred years small businesses,
hundreds of years to focus on one product or one field, but who have lived 100
years or more.
China's reform and opening up more than 30
years, there is also a law, those companies that will do business perfectly, in
fact, develop good, even a giant:
Huawei's only communications equipment and
its related industries for decades, can resist the temptation of making quick
money, become the most outstanding high-tech enterprises in China, the world's
top 500 enterprises of China in the leader. There is no doubt that Huawei if
engaged in the real estate industry, certainly has a lot of advantages, but
they did not do so, otherwise, it is impossible to achieve impressive results
in the field of communication.
Vanke from supermarket business, real
estate, thus becoming China's largest real estate company.
Chili sauce for decades to do only one
thing: condiment sauce.
Looking back at many companies, the small,
but in many industries, prematurely to diversify its business. Do anything, but
not to do anything, in fact, this is also a typical flippancy, as a result,
industrial upgrading will be difficult to achieve, there is even a Chinese
group to Japan to buy toilet funny facts.
2, for trying to finance for people to
circumvent shuffle, you must understand the basics of financial management:
Asset allocation mix between the safety,
profitability, liquidity, rather than dreams and good liquidity and yield, and
safety products, if there is such a product, it must be a scam.
Professional people to do professional
things is a huge gap between professional players and amateurs, don't assume
that you know everything, what money you want to make, or are reluctant to let
others make money.
Raw than cooked, cooked as well: once you
have selected good products and institutions can be trusted, and not easily
changed, or because it doesn't immediately change the beginner's mind.
Awareness and understanding of a body is, after all, takes time, investment is
the biggest taboo is always greener!
Logic, I believe that common sense, rather
than believe in miracles: the majority of individual stocks is a process of
loss of individual stocks can make money is a miracle, therefore, need to think
about their own logic of the stock market to make money and possibilities.
Believe the probability rather than
gambling: investing in long-term outcome is the result of a probability,
therefore, lost the final result will be all in gambling. Using leverage in the
investment in securities is a typical gambler mentality.
3, embrace mergers and acquisitions,
cross-border and cross-border
For ambitious entrepreneurs, the
acquisition is an important method for bigger and stronger.
For a not big and barely surviving
business, mergers and acquisitions are also a good choice. That anachronistic,
better be the head of a lion, sooner or later, the enterprise into the end
position.
Across the territories, in particular by
selecting and identifying professional teams across borders is likely to be
successful. Because cross-border often meant to subvert, one vision and no
framework for a new way of thinking, then, using a professional team to carry
out cross-border work, and ensure that expertise. Looking back at the past 10
years, many great businesses across borders: Apple phone, Tesla does cars.
Cross-boundary will be the norm, to be prepared. Therefore, even if it is the
industry's leading enterprise, but also thickened walls, widening the moat,
which is a daily must move.
4, greater investment in financial
institutions, and for the next 10 years, asset management may be the most
valuable investment financial institutions, banks and securities firms have
already invested missed the window period.
Bole after long study of the times found a
common investment law: made over the past 30 years to large areas of a
successful investment focused on investments in financial institutions, asset
manager the next 10 years may be the most valuable investment financial
institutions. The past 30 years, many companies have diversified attempt, even
invested project itself consciously and unconsciously, we found that
investments in industry, far below the success rate on investments in the
financial sector.
80-90 a large number of enterprises
investing in banks, both Shenzhen Development Bank, China Minsheng Bank, China
Merchants Bank, and Societe Generale Bank, Bank of Beijing, Bank of Ningbo,
investors have made dozens of times or even a hundredfold in return. Began in
the 90 's a lot of business to invest in securities, whether it's investing in
major brokerage CITIC Securities, guosen securities, guotai Junan securities,
or investment by small brokerages guohai securities, sinolink securities, has
made dozens of times in return. For example, Beijing urban construction, ya GE
you. Investing in insurance agencies, also achieved a very good return.
"Why investment in financial
investments to achieve massive success? And investments in the industry may
face a greater risk of failure? ”
(1) investment is a matter of probability,
the growth of financial institutions closely linked with the development of the
national economy and the transformation of the economic structure. As long as
economic growth, under normal circumstances, financial institutions are able to
share a piece of the action.
(2) 80 investment in banks: China's rapid
GDP growth, banks are the largest beneficiaries. Most comprehensive high GDP
growth is good for the banking industry because relevance is the strongest of
the banks and the national economy.
(3) 90 investments in securities: stock
investors in China from zero to more than 200 million people today, a stunning
development, so today's smallest listed brokerages, there are tens of billions
of market value.
"Why, next 10 years asset managers are
likely to be one of China's most valuable investment areas? ”
(1) the deepening of China's financial
development will be mainly in the field of wealth management and wealth
management as the core institution, undoubtedly will be the most beneficial.
Disintermediation and specialization of investment of the Internet makes the
traditional banks and brokerages faced a great deal of transformation and
survival, and beneficiaries are asset managers.
(2) has proved countless times in the past,
today's Europe is tomorrow's China, when conditions are right, the time is
around 10, so 30 years after reform and opening up, standing in the global
heights, will China's industries are compared with the developed countries in
Europe and America, we found that the asset management industry is one of the
largest remaining gap.
This gap is reflected in the breadth and
depth of two aspects:
(1) the breadth of speaking, China's wealth
management is still in the stage of personal finance, more than 90% people
remained in their care of their wealth, and 90% of the West's wealth to a
commercial operation and management.
(2) speaking from the depth, currently
China's largest dedicated wealth manager is only around 800 billion yuan RMB
and United States maximum of more than $ 5 trillion, gap up to 40 times more
than China's GDP reached United States of 60%, and in 10 years is expected to
catch up with the United States.
Gap means space.
3, the trend of investor structure of
institutions is evident, China's institutional investors have a lot of space
United States institutional investors
accounted for more than 90%, while China only 20% through usurious interest
rates and after the events of the crash, Bole firmly believes that the times,
non-professional investors will gradually withdraw from the market.
Institutional investors will predominate.
China's economic transformation has been a
key moment for the investment as a whole, has reached a crucial moment. Shuffle
itself means wealth with economies in transition over the past 30 years
performed the first and second Fortune shuffle the smoke had gone, but the
third Fortune shuffling going on, we must be constantly vigilant and deal with
it calmly, must not be taken lightly. Each of us wants to be the third big
reshuffle winner rather than a loser of wealth.
This paper tries to elaborate history and
logic, hoped has the help to everybody, irregularities, please be
understanding. Hundreds of words, era Bole is a case!
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